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Sunday, December 28, 2014

What Crystal Ball Says About Obama's Final 2 Years


Larry Sabato predicts massive insurrection in nation's capital



The 2014 midterm elections were largely a referendum on President Obama, and Republicans should expect him to push more unilateral action over the next two years to avoid political battles with a GOP Congress, according to University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato.

Sabato directs the school’s Center for Politics and “Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” which very accurately predicted the Republican gains in the House and Senate.

By the time all races were decided, Republicans had picked up nine Senate seats to set up a 54-46 GOP majority come January. The GOP also added 15 House seats and will soon hold a 247-188 majority in that chamber.

So why did Republicans have such a good year? Sabato said to look no further than the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.

“Midterm elections, inevitably, are a reflection of the popularity or unpopularity of the White House. Remember, it’s all about turnout. You always have a low turnout with midterm elections, so you always ask which side is more energized. Well, clearly Republicans were. They were angry at the White House. They had a long list of grievances after six years,” said Sabato, who noted that Democrats didn’t turn out their vote for a predictable reason.

“Democrats were not excited anymore. The bloom is off the rose,” he said. “That usually happens in the sixth year. It doesn’t always happen, but it usually happens because by then the partisans of the guy in the White House realize that nirvana will not be occurring. You’re not going to have all of those promises fulfilled that were made in the original election.”

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